Bigger than Ali-Frazier

I really hoped to publish something related to anything other than Ukraine. After the brawl last Friday, such hopes were no longer tenable.

I would like to apologize in advance. Last week, I had been reviewing several topics for my next newsletter that all had absolutely nothing to do with Ukraine, since I published my last essay on that very topic less than two weeks ago. Yet, after that excruciating fiasco last Friday in the Oval Office, I was urged by someone close to me that I had no choice but to jump right back in. And as a writer dedicated to informing my readers on up-to-date events, another entry on Ukraine you will receive. However, I promise to make it shorter than normal. Still, I am sure you are interested to hear my reflection on the abominable display that occurred in front of the entire world whose winners were certainly Vladimir Putin and XI Jinping.

Only a week ago, it seemed there was real hope that the war in Ukraine may come to an end soon, albeit at the cost of painful Ukrainian concessions regarding lost territory, NATO membership, and now mineral rights. Having previously humiliated Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent when Bessent journeyed to Kyiv in Mid-February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his government had promised to grant American mining companies extensive concessions to extract Ukraine’s vast but largely untapped mineral wealth. Since many of these resources, critical to weakening China’s dominance of the rare earth sector, lie directly in the conflict zone of Ukraine’s devastated East, extracting anything in that region requires not only a ceasefire but a durable peace

I don’t think anyone should be surprised that neither President Trump nor Vice President Vance have any respect or warmth for the Ukrainian President. And it wasn’t just about Zelensky’s ill-advised fashion choices. Who can forget the whole 2019 impeachment saga or the fabrications regarding the Hunter Biden laptop scandal? I certainly would like to, but many of you have not. The Vice President’s grudge seems even stronger than the President’s, and it has seeped across the Administration and the Republican Party as a whole. In essence, the Trump Administration sees Zelensky as an agent of the opposing party- not a good place for the former actor. Furthermore, there is a widespread belief on the American right that the conflict in Ukraine is a conspiracy of the so-called “deep state” designed to maintain a forever war with Russia to enrich arms manufacturers. With all these strikes against Ukraine, Zelensky was barreling into a combustible situation.

And combust it did.

Following the verbal brawl in the oval office, I originally saw both Trump and Vance as the aggressors, since it seemed they were doing most of the berating as Zelensky mostly sat back and took it. I was understandably outraged, until I watched the tape several times more when I realized that Zelensky broke the cardinal rule of negotiating with Donald Trump: don’t poke the bear. And poke Zelensky did. Instead of recognizing that the minerals agreement, while imperfect, was the only, with no exceptions, way for his country to escape such a devastating conflict that has ruined his cities and killed thousands of his citizens, Zelensky felt he could renegotiate his relationship with Washington and keep up the status quo from the Biden Administration. And despite warnings before the fateful visit to the White House to focus on the mining agreement and avoid arguing with officials who already did not trust him, Zelensky chose a different path.

So was the Trump/Vance vs. Zelensky brawl a planned set-up designed to humiliate the Ukrainian president once and for all? As far as Vice President Vance is concerned, I am convinced the answer is yes. For JD Vance, a man whose core beliefs dictate his opposition to prolonged overseas engagements, Ukraine is just a proxy for the Democrats and the “deep state” he wants to destroy. His Godfather-like demands for gratitude from a man whose nation has been the clear victim of great power games were an awful sight, and my respect for the Vice President has dropped dramatically. And as far as the President is concerned, everything I have read indicated a legitimate desire to finalize the minerals agreement. Zelensky’s attempts to add “security guarantees,” essentially committing American troops to fighting for a non-NATO member in case Russia violates a ceasefire, were extremely ill-advised and must be conceded if Ukraine wants a peace settlement of any sort.

In turn, while I absolutely believe that both Trump and Vance were out of line refrained in their aggressive treatment of Zelensky, the Ukrainian president should have done everything he could to ensure a smooth summit rather than push for quixotic demands and bait his skeptical hosts into a fiasco the whole world witnessed. And it may be the case that the only serious off-ramp entails Zelensky’s resignation. After all, since Ukraine simply cannot win a military victory against a far more powerful Russia, the only option to avoid even more loss of life and loss of territory for Ukraine, as well as restore some kind of balance in Europe, is to find a reasonable conclusion where all parties security interests are respected. For everyone’s sake, we must hope cooler heads prevail and that all sides can return to the negotiating table.