Good Riddance to 2023, and Three Cheers to 2024
A reflection on 2023, and what to expect for 2024
2023, what a year. Most humans, except for the Pollyannas among us, have wished 2023 good riddance and hope for miracles in 2024. With massive fires in places such as Hawaii and Greece, a huge war in the Middle East, a political circus in Washington, and the rise of Aritificial Intelligence (AI), 2023 gave us quite a lot to talk about. However, now we must look ahead to 2024. And 2024 promises to be just as eventful, if not more so, than 2023.
The geopolitical story that dominated headlines around the world last year was the October 7 butchery carried out by the Palestinian militant group Hamas (who remains committed to eliminating Israel from the map) against Israeli civilians and Israel’s harsh and bloody response that many now view as severely disproportionate. The initial attack surprised everyone, considering the storied reputation of Israel’s intelligence agency Mossad. However, what did not surprise anyone was Israel’s retaliation- indiscriminate bombing of the Gaza Strip. Israeli leaders seem determined, regardless of the international outcry or the civilian death count, to press on with a military campaign they view as an existential obligation. On the flipside, Arab leaders have been pressured by their own Anti-Israel populations through boycotts and even street protests to sever all ties with Israel and even send weapons to Hamas, whose popularity has soared on the Arab street since the October 7 attacks. However, giving in to popular demand will risk alienating the United States, who remains these regimes’ primary security partner and economic creditor. Thus, the gap between Arab elites and their own populations I expect to widen further in 2024. With passions and radicalization at an all-time high on all sides, the outlook for the foreseeable future remains grim.
Sadly, the conflict in Ukraine has not gone away either. 2023, while it has seen Russian rocket attacks directed at Ukrainian civilians and Ukrainian rocket and drone attacks hitting into Russian territory proper, did not see substantial advancement in either direction as both sides have dug into defensive positions. However, there are fears in Western countries that thanks to a softening of support for Ukraine in both the USA (where congress is squabbling) and Europe (see next paragraph) that Ukraine could be forced to sign a humiliating ceasefire. Of course, no one expects Russia to keep its word with any ceasefire. While I still have some optimism that Russia’s military incompetence will prevent serious territorial gains in 2024, I sadly expect more blood spillage in Ukraine for years to come. The best we can do is to ensure that NATO countries near Ukraine such as Poland and the Baltic States will never face Ukraine’s horrific fate.
Events that I like to follow, no matter which country they occur in, are elections. This June voters in the European Union will be asked to choose their representatives European Parliament, an unnecessary institution with little use beyond hollow virtue signaling. Economic stagnation and record migration are expected to fuel the continued rise of anti-establishment right-wing political parties, some of which have Russian ties and oppose assistance to Ukraine. However, this will be a merely symbolic protest vote with no tangible impact. Another election with little significance is in India, the world’s most-populated democracy. Following his initial election in 2014 and re-election in 2019, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has simultaneously moved closer to the US while implementing controversial Hindu nationalist policies, is expected to cruise to a third term.
However, the most important 2024 election will happen on November 5, a week and a day after my 30th birthday. Despite the frustrations of millions of Americans who yearn for alternatives, the most likely outcome appears to be a geriatric rematch between incumbent president Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump, whose signature diplomatic accomplishment, the Abraham Accords, has imploded spectacularly. The only event, in my opinion, that can possibly prevent Biden’s metaphorical fall (after multiple physical falls) is a legal conviction against Trump in one or more of his four criminal trials. Should Trump survive the legal battles and re-enter the White House, American foreign policy will change dramatically. Trying to guess exactly what this change will look like, considering Trump’s mercurial nature, is nothing more than useless punditry. However, should some of the more radical ideas Trump and his associates have flirted with be implemented, such as pulling out of the NATO alliance (a possibility Congress has attempted to pre-empt) or endorsing a full Israeli annexation of the Palestinian West Bank, expect significant resistance and turbulence from 2025 and beyond.
Of course, there will most certainly be black swans, such as another coup or conflict breaking out in Africa or Lebanon, more natural disasters (including already an earthquake in Japan) or technological disruptions. However, at least for 2024, I can offer you one silver lining: I do not anticipate a major escalation around Taiwan as China waits out the results of the Taiwanese and American elections. We also cannot rule out the optimistic possibility that Russia’s failure to take over Ukraine quickly, along with reports of corruption in the Chinese military, will delay indefinitely any plans to launch an aggressive military campaign against Taiwan. And that, certainly, would be a relief for all of us, including even China’s 1.4 billion people.
Photo Credit- Sydney New Year’s Eve